không thể chịu nổi chi phí vay nợ. Thứ hai, cơ quan này mua vào rất nhiều
cổ phiếu, nên giá cổ phiếu không giảm xuống mà còn tăng lên. Chiến thuật
này đã thành công. Các nhà đầu cơ không những lỗ to do phải trả lãi nặng
cho các khoản vay, mà còn bị thiệt hại nặng từ các khoản đầu tư vì đã trót
bán cổ phiếu với giá thấp.
(Saigon Times Daily ngày 17-2-2003)
48. Industrialization Through Protection?
Every nation that grows richer increases its share of industry while that
of agriculture falls. The question is, what is the best way to develop an
industrial sector that can sustain its own growth? There are two strategies.
One uses protection - tariffs, quotas and bans on imports. The idea is to
raise the product's price so that local firms can learn how to become
efficient. In principle, the protection should be reduced over time so that
consumers of the products are not stuck with permanently high costs. In
fact, once an industry gets used to protection, it is very difficult to adjust to
life without it. A protected firm gets a high return from persuading
government officials or politicians that it must have more protection. Less
effort is spent on lowering costs or improving products. Sometimes a
government is very strong and forced firms to become competitive, but this
is rare. Usually, once industrialization gets started with high costs, it
continues that way.
Is this so bad? Yes, because high cost industrialization is doomed to slow
down. Firms cannot export. Thus, economies of scale of the same
magnitude as exporters are not possible. Users of the expensive products as
inputs also have trouble exporting. With slowing exports, imports of
advanced capital goods are not possible without borrowing. But the debt
goes to more high cost industry. This industry creates few jobs or exports.
With no ability to export and slowing domestic demand, the high cost
economy slows down. This is what happened to India, Brazil, and other
